Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India on December 4-5, 2025, marks his first trip to the nation since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. This visit, the 23rd annual summit between India and Russia, occurs amidst a backdrop of strained relations between the United States and both India and Russia, making it a focal point of international attention. The US is closely monitoring the visit due to concerns over India's crude oil imports, tariffs, and the overall strategic implications of the enduring India-Russia relationship.
India's Balancing Act
Since its independence in 1947, India has strategically avoided formal alliances with major powers, leading the non-aligned movement during the Cold War. However, India has historically leaned towards the Soviet Union and, in recent times, has deepened its strategic and military ties with the United States. Russia's war in Ukraine has complicated this balancing act, and Putin's visit could reveal how India plans to manage its relationships with both Russia and the West without sacrificing its own interests.
Crude Oil Imports and US Pressure
A key point of contention for the US is India's increased import of Russian crude oil following the invasion of Ukraine. India became the second-largest buyer of Russian crude, with imports increasing by a staggering 2,250 percent, accounting for 40 percent of India's total imports. This surge helped stabilize the global market at a time when the West was reducing its dependence on Russian oil. However, the US has expressed concerns, especially after imposing sanctions on Russia's major oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, and threatening sanctions on companies trading with them. Consequently, Reliance, India's largest private oil refiner, has stated it will no longer export petroleum products using Russian crude.
The US is putting pressure on India to reduce its Russian oil purchases through tariffs and potential sanctions. In October 2025, the US imposed a 50% tariff on certain Indian exports, the highest tariff for any country, exacerbating trade tensions. Despite these pressures, India has maintained its stance, with a top Russian analyst suggesting that India, driven by pragmatism, would not easily forego the economic advantages of purchasing Russian energy.
Defense Cooperation and Geopolitical Alignment
Defense cooperation remains a vital aspect of the India-Russia relationship. Russia is India's largest defense supplier, accounting for approximately 36 percent of arms imports and over 60 percent of India's existing arsenal. While India is attempting to boost domestic production and diversify its suppliers, Russia's position as a key defense partner is expected to remain strong for several years. India's air force chief has emphasized the importance of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, especially after its effectiveness in recent conflicts. Potential new defense purchases, including additional S-400 systems and the Su-57 fighter aircraft, are on the agenda during Putin's visit. The US, however, is wary of these deals and the potential for further sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Trade and Economic Relations
India and Russia aim to strengthen their trade and investment ties, seeking to increase bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. In FY 2024-25, bilateral trade reached a record high of $68.7 billion. Discussions during Putin's visit will likely focus on increasing Indian exports to Russia and developing new cooperation models. Both countries are also looking to strengthen inter-regional cooperation and promote connectivity initiatives such as the International North-South Transport Corridor. However, with US tariffs and potential secondary sanctions, achieving the $100 billion trade target remains uncertain.
Strategic Implications
Putin's visit underscores India's intent to deepen ties with Russia, viewing it as a crucial partner amidst concerns over the reliability of the US and the growing assertiveness of China. India's strategic challenge lies in maintaining a balance between its relationships with the West and Russia. While India seeks deeper ties with the US and Europe for technology, investment, and trade, Russia remains indispensable for its long-term defense needs.
The visit is expected to yield progress on a labor mobility pact, movement on a trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union, and expanded market access for Indian goods. Overall, Putin's visit aims to reaffirm the New Delhi-Moscow relationship, even as the US applies pressure and the global geopolitical landscape continues to evolve.
